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It turned out to be useless however as it includes a lot of exports of imported products. The EIA data only goes back to All data is in thousand barrels per day. World crude oil exports in were 2,, barrels per day below peak and at the lowest point in 10 years. OPEC exports peaked, so far, in at 25,, barrels per day. Their exports fell by just over 1,, barrels per day last year and I am betting they will fall further this year. Non-OPEC exports have taken a hit in the last few years, peaking in and are down just under three million barrels per day since then.
Everything is in thousand barrels per day. Russian exports peaked back in though the EIA has them peaking two years earlier. Russian exports are down almost half a million barrels per day since peaking. UAE exports have taken off in the last few years. There seems to have been a thousand barrel per day difference of opinion about Venezuelan exports in It was before they got back together.
But there is no disagreement about Mexico. The EIA Norway data goes through Though crude production is now higher than it was in , exports are still thousand barrels per day below what they were in I guess that is ELM in action. Things are getting worse in Libya. It may take years for them to return to normal… if they ever do. Exports of all the other nations, combined, peaked in and have dropped almost 2 million barrels per day since. Just one last note.
And I just had to post this. Why gas pries remain static despite oil production surge. Although US oil production has increased to The US is producing Here is where they got that figure:.
So if refineries took in Saudi oil exports to decline http: And a key point to keep in mind is that many exporters export crude oil and import refined products, e. What OPEC says it is: Data may include exports of lease condensates, re-exports, changes in the quantity of oil in transit. However it matches pretty close what the EIA calls: So this is all I have to track. The EIA had not been updating their net export data, but it looks like they have resumed.
Following is their list of the top net oil exporters. The only difference between the data set that I use, versus the EIA, is that they define net exports as total liquids production inclusive of refinery gains less total liquids consumption. I exclude refinery gains for two reasons: The first question I asked the EIA staff was if they had modeled future Global Net Exports of oil, assuming flat to declining production in oil exporting countries, versus rising consumption.
Based on the to rate of decline in the Saudi ECI Ratio, they would approach zero net exports around the year As I have previously noted, we saw a similar pattern with the Six Country Case History from to The preliminary EIA data showed a slight production decline from to This will impact their net oil exports to a greater degree in the next few years if the trend continues. According to BP statistical review Mexico consumed 2. Sure, a few years between it picked up… but not much. I gather all the corruption and turmoil in Mexico has kept its country from growing its GDP, while its citizens are too poor to increase their oil consumption.
As noted in the prior thread, I suspect that KMZ is starting to follow the same downward trend as Cantarell. Given an inevitable ongoing decline in production in a net oil exporting country, unless they cut their internal oil consumption at the same rate as, or at a faster rate than, the rate of decline in production, the resulting net export decline rate will exceed the production decline rate and the net export decline rate will accelerate with time, on a year over year basis.
While Pemex is expected to keep mature assets like Cantarell under a so-called Round Zero allocation due to conclude in September, the reform will also permit first-ever joint ventures between Pemex and oil majors in new and existing developments.
One needs to consider the impact the 40 GW of solar PV power planned for will have on consumption. And seems to be way too high. Does your model use a linear increase in consumption or exponential? Yes I am retired and have nothing else to do but putter around with peak oil stuff. I did do some kayak sailing. Now all I have to do is mow the lawn every couple of weeks.
She has no idea what I am doing. But she is in bad health and has serious short term memory problems so I just humor her. I have three sons, all now in their middle age. They all know what I do but only my oldest has ever read my blog.
But he does not follow it. He had rather not think about it. The truth is this peak oil thing has become kind of an obsession of mine. As I have stated before, when you are observing the end of civilization as we know it, it is just damn hard to take your eyes off it.
Ron- Thanks for all your good work. Many of us feel a bit isolated, and this is a place of refuge from a toxic society, that many try to be comfortable in. And each day, it seems that even Dennis may be drawing ever closer to the same conclusions. Still, though I am enthralled with the unfolding story, I am confused what to do next, what should be my next step at every accomplishment, every failure. I have become, at times, reticent to share my concern with others, and still at other times, hopeful, excited, determined.
I hope you will not give up, that you will continue to believe that your message has made a difference and continues to do so. People like me and so -many others not like me — absolutely need the industry- and intellectual- intelligence that you put out here that otherwise remains absent in the mainstream media.
They did not make tandems back then. Email me at DarwinianOne at Gmail. Ron, you have mellowed into a much more polite person since I first started reading your posts more than a dozen years ago. You then reminded me of a in-law relative so I put up with you, got accustom to your ways and look how you have turned out …… you are OK, and your web site work is appreciated, Thank you. I assume you mean Field Engineer. I worked in Houston for a short time, at the Space Center.
It was CSM that injected the bit about Yes, I think you are right. The Tully peace appears below bit about Therefore it is not part of the article. I guess Tully would be quite upset if they actually inserted it into the article.
I suspect that they thought that gross refinery inputs are equivalent to domestic US production note the I appreciate your effort. Nice to have a replacement for TOD.
I too am retired with seemingly lots of time. But have too many hobbies and thus end up with no time. Population, energy and material resources have been a hobby for more than 50 years. The charts you present week after week speak for themselves but nearly everybody is either oblivious or intentionally blind or so steeped in conventional thinking and tribal loyalties as to be unable to see the obvious.
Now as it happens I am a doomer but not quite so pessimistic as the evidence taken at face value indicates I should be because I am of the opinion people will adapt considerably faster than most doomers anticipate they will. NOT fast enough to outrun depletion and maintain business as usual by any means but still fast enough to delay collapse of business as usual longer than hard core dormers anticipate.
Right now we have a fascinating opportunity to watch and see how importing countries manage ever increasing imported energy costs. Now here in my community in the mountains of the American south-Applachia- I have been watching people who are petroleum dependent do what they have to do to maintain their way of life as best they can. So far this is what I am seeing. Maybe ten percent of us are fast slipping into deep poverty and once in that situation getting out if it can be nearly impossible.
Ten percent near the top of the money pyramid are still driving new four by four full sized trucks and Caddys and flying for social purposes. The eighty percent in the middle are coping with greater or lesser degrees of success. I now have numerous neighbors who habitually ride 50 cc scooters. No parts no service.
Throwing away a fifty dollar tool is one thing. Junking a two grand scooter two years old is another altogether.
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